What Can We Expect from Martin Ødegaard at Arsenal?

Short version

Initially uploaded: 7th February, 2021

Here is a fairly brief breakdown of what kind of player the Norwegian talent is based off some of his performances for Real Sociedad and Real Madrid across these past two seasons.

If you’re interested in reading a more thorough take on Ødegaard, and how he stacks up against Smith-Rowe, here is a separate, more detailed piece I wrote on the matter.

Attacking

He’s featured as a right-sided #8 in a 4-3-3 for La Real, and as a #10 across multiple systems with Zinédine Zidane this season in the capital. For the former he operated efficiently within the wide triangular setup – rotating and shifting lanes well to receive the ball in good pockets of space between the lines.

With more freedom from the middle for the latter, he’s offered similar consistency in movement but with less of an impact due to issues with his awareness of his entire surroundings.

He often prefers to come deep for the ball, sometimes as a way of pulling open lanes through the lines, but mostly to get a hold of the ball where he has more time and space. He did so for La Real well, which helped maintain their shape and thus helped to sustain pressure.

His deeper tendencies have struggled more at Real this season, though, due to the presences of Luka Modrić and Toni Kroos, which has forced him to remain higher up the pitch. Subsequently forced to patrol the space between the lines but is guilty of gravitating too close to the ball on either side, without assessing where his teammates are, which can leave unnecessary gaps in the shape whilst also blocking lanes into teammates.

Vertical movement lacks in variety, most notably in terms of runs in behind. Lack of blind-sided awareness due to ball-facing starting positions means he regularly fails to recognise when a channel is open to attack.

Ball-facing body shape impacts how he controls the ball, which is frequently backwards with a closed body shape. He has the ability to take the ball on the spin or to set himself with an open body using his first touch, but he still does often miss out on opportunities to combine first-time.

Very slow to angle his body correctly once taking the ball on in this way – sometimes needing 2 or 3 additional touches just to align himself comfortably enough.

Pressure-evasion once receiving in tight spaces is limited by the above and how tall-standing he is, which, combined with his lacking awareness of all angles, makes it difficult to cover the ball effectively. Narrow stance makes it difficult to change directions quickly, too.

Does still attempt many (3.7) dribbles per 90, and has tight bits of footwork that see him shift the ball effectively onto his outside to evade moments of pressure. He’s also better able to ride challenges and sell players when making inroads from the right across the opposition’s midfield line, which creates passing and shooting opportunities from more centred areas.

Fairly high volume passer with glimpses of great quality but lacks substance to many of them. Passing accuracy (80.9% for La Real) lacks slightly and is evident in regularly misdirected and mis-weighted simple passes, as well as in the more ambitious ones.

Offers great progressive numbers but awareness problems, and keeping head down when receiving, have a ginormous toll on his creative ability. Vision is then often too skewed towards the side he’s received from or too centred around the space he’s in, and he also suffers from delayed releases of the ball because of these aspects.

Creative figures are thus a little lower than desired due to irregularly successful execution of good attempts at some of the balls he attempts to play in behind, and is also skewed by set-piece-based creative numbers since that is a strong point of his.

Shot-creating actions for La Real were at a solid level but nothing major. Goal threat lacks due his poor attacking instincts – constantly preferring to hand deep of the last line, even when there are blatant channels to attack more towards the face of goal.

Also evident slightly deeper, too, as he doesn’t carry that instinct to spark 3rd-man runs be it after moving on the ball, or as a teammate watching play progress and recognising the forward spaces.

Boasts a reasonably good shooting technique. Prefers to drill shots back across goal from the left but this requires him to have carried the ball, or moved towards the ball, quite far across from the right. Able to keep shots quite low but isn’t always consistent in his connection with the ball, nor his ability to avoid firing straight at the goalkeeper.

Unsurprising, then, that his non-penalty xG per shot figure for La Real (0.07) was indeed very low, as was his general non-penalty xG per 90 (0.11).

Defence

Enthusiastic defender and keen to press from the front. On a technical level, he’s quite flawed, though. Quite narrow-facing his stance, which makes it difficult for him to change directions, and makes it easier to play passes around him – only further heightened by his disregard for his surroundings, consequently making it easy for opponents to shift either side of his cover shadow to receive.

Keen to pre-emptively position himself high, which leaves gaps behind him to exploit. Same for in general defensive states, as he is caught ball-watching.

Has issues tracking opponents intensely enough when going man-to-man and his work rate when acting as part of a deep block seems to fluctuate

Tackling technique has a fairly high upside when he’s not already caught out by the flat-footedness stemming from his approach play. Is able to be aggressive whilst still being very clean cut without being clumsy.

Attacking transitions

Movement horizontally is good to free himself between the lines. Is willing to offer wide, also.

Ability to run shift the ball and even run with it at pace is heavily pegged back by his ball-facing stances and closed-bodied touches. Isn’t the most clinical short passer or combiner of the ball in these situations, either.

Dribbling seems nowhere near as prominent as in general play, since he’s always focused on how to release the ball.

Forward awareness, or lack thereof, impacts his decision-making when attempting through balls, which can also be let down by weighting issues.

Sometimes slow to get up the pitch in support if it requires him to be making box runs since he lacks the drive to get into the box in such a way.

Defensive transitions

Intensity is very impressive. Gets across to either side of the pitch to cover spare options very well. Willingness to follow play from box-to-box, and to track ball-carriers relentlessly.

Issues persist, still, in regards to awareness and body shaping, which can leave him vulnerable to 1-2s and such.

When already too far detached from play, though, he’s quite slow to get back into shape.

Set-pieces

Excellent set-piece taker, providing great placement and power on the majority of his efforts from all types of areas. Potential goalscorer from more direct situations, too, but more significant as a provider from these.

Isn’t usually in the mix when attacking or defending corners, though, since he’s quite small and doesn’t have much about him physically.

Conclusion

Injury issues are a concern minutes-wise, but Emile Smith-Rowe’s place in the side as his direct competition – and Smith-Rowe’s own fitness issues – can be combined to balance their workloads almost perfectly ahead of an intense schedule.

Overall, as a short-term option, he could be exactly the small creative boost Arsenal need, although questions can be raised over how Arteta might try to induct him into the side given his style clashes slightly with Smith-Rowe’s, which seems to be the coach’s preferred type of #10.

Most likely still not quite the long-term successor to Mesut Özil, though (if he were in a position to join permanently afterwards), given the aforementioned issues that prevent him from being a more prolific creator of chances and dictator of play.